The beginning of China's collapse

By Rinzin Ngodup

In the dictionary of China's communist government , there is no word  called ‘ Truth’ whether it is in political or economical context. We have been hearing and seeing all the economic growth of China. Most of the people are optimistic about the china's economy and they keep on writing how china will outgrow America. The world runs on truth, not in lie or false. It is agreeable that sometimes lie or false does work, but how long?

The truth is that china is running out of time and soon, time will come that china will be vehemently turned into a new form of government. It is difficult to tell what form of government might come into exist. It could be more authoritarian than now or democracy which will most probably bring more freedom to my people and if possible we exile Tibetans can go back to Tibet.

China has been lying to the world and I know nobody damn cares about it as long as they see China as a good business partner. Ever since Deng's liberalization in 1979, china has not stopped growing politically and most importantly economically. Gross domestic product ( GDP) has reached as high as two digit( Dream of India since 1990) and everywhere you go these days, you can see made in China, even pencils and matchsticks carry tags “made in China.”

 If you ask someone, why do you think China is developing? The answer would be, more of Chinese import goods conspicuous in foreign countries which clearly indicate that China is developing and earning lots of money out of it. But one thing you need to think rationally is that measurement of GDP does not go with Net export or Net import alone, it is aggregation of consumption, output, investment etc. In fact increase in export and import doesn’t really matter, both have disadvantages in their own field. In economics, it is balance that we need and increase in net export can also have side effects. And one of the main disadvantages of positive net export is outflow of saving from domestic market to abroad which is in fact happening in China. The recent report says that Chinese has out flowed $600 billion outside China.

I always think China as a “Prostitute economy" because of its nature; it looks like growing and expanding but within it, there is nothing left to expand. People of china have been exploited by both communist and capitalist. Communist exploits them to retain their power and capitalist exploits them to make hell lots of profit, so that when time comes they can exit from country. It is the people who will suffer for their living and for their healthy life. China has been developing continuously for last few decades and standard of living has been increasing. But every success has its own failure and every Boom has its own Depression. The Great depression of 1929 has great impact on the world politics and economics. Adolf Hitler was the product of Great depression and Mussolini also can be tagged as product of great depression. People needed change during The Great depression and Hitler promised them that he would bring more progress in country, but it was worst nightmare in the history of mankind. In the time of crisis, new ideology gets invented and people get fed up with the government as a result new government gets formed. But the question is how Chinese communist government is going to survive in this situation? No economy is immune to crisis and no economy can stop from growing. As of now, Chinese economy is growing, but how long it is going to last? Is Beijing government ready for crisis?  One can possibly conclude in two broad explanations;

UNEMPLOYMENT

 Everything gets changed when one is in this situation. There is an inverse relation between GDP and Unemployment which means high GDP with low unemployment and vice versa. If you look at current scenario, China is growing at 7.4 %( greedily it is low for China) and unemployment rate is 4.1 % by latest. It vividly indicates that China is in Good shape but data do lie sometime especially when it is china. One of the biggest problems for a statistician and an economist in China, is availability of data. Everything in china is classified and it is impossible to trust the government sources.

 To start a revolution, you need a spark to fire the revolution and I think that unemployment can be that spark. If you look at Arab spring, it was the self immolation in Tunisia which sparked the revolution but what made him to self immolate? It was fear of getting unemployment and corrupted official. The unemployment rate in China is low comparing to other countries ( India is 9.8% and still waiting for revolution) and revolution would be in threshold if unemployment rate reaches as high at double digit. You might be thinking this is not possible given a high economic growth. Well I think it is near and could be next year.

CORRUPTION

Corruption which is an evil poison is said to be exist since people started the society, unlike unemployment which became popular after 1920s depression. Even though unemployment existed before, classical economists did not accept unemployment and believed in full employment.

 China is a corrupted nation and right from the president to the local official, all the officials are involved in corruption directly or indirectly. Recently there was a report from Bloomberg news media that Xi Jinping's relative was involved in corruption but evidence was destroyed right after the report and Bloomberg was warned about future consequence if they do not report to the Beijing government before they publish anything about China. There are lots of stories like this in china which is either being destroyed or sources get killed or jailed. In china, people are fed up with the action of their officials. Situation is ripening and time is calling for a revolution in China.

Tibetan protest even the Tibetan bodies on fire might not be able to shake China given the fact that the world doesn't give a ****about Tibet as long as they can use Tibet as a business card with Beijing government, but the Chinese people in mainland China can surely shake the Beijing government to death.

NOTE— Rinzin Ngodup is a student of economics at Dalhousie University, Halifax Canada.

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